Lincoln City Transfer Reports: What Should You Believe?

Transfer rumours. They’re everywhere, aren’t they? In the last week, Lincoln City been linked with a League One free agent, a Turkish Super Lig player and a defender from Sweden.

We all have journalists we trust, and those we don’t, but what makes a good story? How many journalists get the news accurately, and in good time? I thought ahead of the transfer window, I’d break down some of the data I have accrued over the last ten years.

This is by no means exhaustive, nor is it a slur on any single journalist or outlet. I have found every story in the ‘transfer rumours’ section of the site, attributed it to an outlet and a journalist, and gone from there. Usually, when I attribute a story to an outlet, they are the first to report it, but again, this is meant to be a rough guide.

Caveats: I may not have reported on every viable rumour in the last ten years, and if I did, then they may have come around again. For instance, if Lee Bonis was linked twice by different journalists a year apart, I have only included the first one here.

Also, what is a miss? A journalist may report on a news story that felt like it had legs, but in the end, we missed out. A classic example of that would be Trai Hume, who was in the EPC ready to sign, before Sunderland waded in. That is one of four stories the Belfast Telegraph have published about us, one that at the time was right, but we later lost out.

Right Stories

I have sampled 120 different stories, some of which have happened this summer. Of the 110 that happened before this window, 31 were accurate. That is 31 stories that broke two days or more before the transfer actually happened. Most journalists got one right, Adrian Kajumba had two, Alan Nixon had three, and Peter O’Rourke had five.

Some were writing their own stuff on social media, others for a paper, and some outlets got a couple right: The Daily Mail, Irish Independent and Daily Record were all right twice, across different journalists.

More than half of the stories I sampled were incorrect, or the player didn’t make the move (there may have been interest). Alan Nixon was wrong far more often than anyone, with ten stories all inaccurate. Peter O’Rourke was wrong on five occasions, while Neil Goulding (Sports Boom) and Darren Witcoop got three wrong.

Half stories

One way a journalist who operates as a transfer specialist works is with agents, just under the embargo radar. So, if the likes of Michael Hortin or me know Lincoln have signed someone, as we so often do, we won’t publish as the club has told us under embargo.

However, an agent might tell a transfer specialist, who has no contact with the club, and they’ll publish it. So, the numbers for journalists who broke a story either on the same day or fewer than 24 hours before, when it’s done, people know it is done, but it hasn’t been announced, are surprising. Alan Nixon had two, and every other journalist had one, except Peter O’Rourke, who had eight.

Percentages

Which journalists tend to be right the most? Again, it is a bit hit and miss, because there may be deals that fell through, but it does give you an idea of how many rumoured deals end up being completed deals. This isn’t intended as a stab at any particular journalist, just a chance for you to assess how viable a story is from start to finish. For accuracy, I have not included the stories broken once a deal is done – these percentages are purely right stories to wrong stories without what would seem like prior knowledge of a deal 100% done.

I’ve included all journalists with three or more stories on the Imps that were either right or wrong (not within 24 hours).

There is also the issue of outlets – journalists may come and go, but what of the actual outlet? Putting aside the writer, I have then broken down the stories per outlet to see if one works out better than the others.

These are ones who get stories with 24 hours or more. The biggest embargo breaker (technically, because he wouldn’t have the embargo) is Peter O’Rourke, who has reported no fewer than eight stories once other outlets have it under embargo. However, as this little exercise proves, he’s also most accurate across a number of stories.

These are the outlets that have got a 100% record, albeit for two stories or fewer in the last ten years: Wales Online (Jordon Garrick), Sky Sports (Chris Maguire), Sheffield Star (Bailey Cadamarteri), Rich Cawley (Deji Elerewe), North West Mail (Jordan Williams), Fotbalové přestupy (guess), Echo News (Ben Coker), and Aftonbladet (Erik Ring), which does suggest the most solid rumours are those coming from local reporters.

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A full breakdown of the stories I used, and the journalists I reported at the time who broke them first.