Lincoln City have had a quiet transfer window so far, with Callum Elder the only new arrival before the squad headed to Spain
That has inevitably created a little concern among some, as it always does. We knew by early April which division we would be playing in, we had time to plan, and we now find ourselves around a month from the start of the season with only one addition through the door. That’s one train of thought.
There is a reasonable counterargument. At a similar stage last summer, we had signed Sonny Bradley and Ryley Towler, primarily to replace Paudie O’Connor and Sean Roughan. Ethan Erhahon still needed replacing, and several other additions arrived later. On that basis, we are only slightly behind where we were 12 months ago.
However, comparing the two summers only takes us so far. Last year, we were recruiting for League One. This time, we are preparing for the Championship, fishing in a different pool and trying to attract a higher calibre of player.
There is little doubt we have missed out on at least a couple of targets. Barney Stewart and Luke Graham were both widely understood to be players we had tracked seriously. Missing out does not automatically mean the recruitment operation is failing, but it illustrates the level of competition we now face.
This summer is also less about replacing specific individuals and more about improving an established group. The team that won the division with 103 points could field a relatively competitive side tomorrow. There is no gaping hole at left-back or centre-half, but there is a need to raise the overall level.
That makes the task both simpler and harder. We should know precisely what qualities are required and we do not need to rush into filling empty shirts. On the other hand, setting the bar higher means competing with the likes of Stoke City, West Bromwich Albion, Portsmouth, Queens Park Rangers and Blackburn Rovers for players capable of making an immediate impact in the Championship.
We cannot win every one of those battles. Those clubs have greater spending power and, in some cases, the ability to spend seven figures on a player without demanding that he become one of their most important performers immediately. If we spend £1 million, that player has to be outstanding. He cannot be a long-term punt who might come good in 18 months. He has to be ready to contribute from the opening weeks, or at worst after a short settling-in period.
Last season, we could begin with a makeshift option in one area and trust that a competitive League One side would remain steady through August while recruitment continued. In the Championship, a weak opening month could be far more damaging. There will be opponents capable of spending £7 million, £8 million or £9 million on players and selling others for £20 million. As a newly promoted side, we could quickly find ourselves heavily beaten, behind the pace and trying to repair the squad after points have already disappeared.
The overseas market presents another challenge. We are not simply competing with English clubs. We may also be battling teams from Austria, Poland, Portugal, Sweden, the Netherlands and elsewhere, some of whom can offer top-flight football, domestic title challenges or European competition. That is a powerful alternative for a player being asked to join a club most people expect to be involved in a Championship relegation battle. Even the Conference League can offer a route to significant European nights against major opponents, something we cannot put on the table.
Our ESC slots, therefore, have to be used exceptionally well. Ivan Varfolomeev is the obvious example of what we need to find again. He has already looked an outstanding addition and appears capable of becoming a major player at the higher level. The challenge is finding two or three more players of similar quality without taking reckless financial risks.
Last season’s recruitment provides reasons for confidence. Deji Elerewe, Josh Honohan, and Varfolomeev all arrived with development potential and, in different ways, a possible Championship ceiling at the very least. Elder, Bradley, Tendayi Darikwa, Adam Reach and George Wickens also bring either experience of the division or an expected input at this level.
Beyond them, however, there are plenty of players with something to prove. Rob Street, Ben House, Tom Bayliss, Dom Jefferies, Reeco Hackett and Freddie Draper are among those who may thrive, but the reality is that not every successful League One player makes the step comfortably. That is why caution matters. We were told the club could break its transfer record more than once this summer, but that was always dependent on the right players becoming available at the right price.
A player valued at £1 million for us may become a £1.5 million or £2 million player once larger Championship clubs enter the race. Paying that amount for an unproven player could consume a huge part of the budget and leave very little room for error elsewhere. Stoke City might not flinch at the difference between £1.5m and £2m, but Lincoln City have to.
We also have to protect ourselves against the possibility of relegation. That is not defeatist, it is responsible planning. Last season, it was expected we’d stay in League One, so any planning could be done knowing that only in the very worst case would we be affected by relegation. This season? The likely outcome, according to neutrals, is that Lincoln City go down. We’ll be fighting that, but the balance of probabilities has us struggling. If we were relegated, we could not afford a mass exodus, a transfer embargo or a complete reset. The ideal outcome would be to return to League One stronger, financially healthier and capable of challenging to come straight back.
Oxford United provide a warning of what can happen when a club spends heavily in an attempt to survive, changes managers repeatedly and then has to deal with the consequences. We must avoid becoming another side chasing former Championship status while carrying unsustainable costs.
Our identity should remain central to every decision. Last season’s success was built on togetherness, hard work, tactical intelligence and a team greater than the sum of its parts. It was not built on throwing money around. We’re trying to do that, on a budget, getting the right quality in, the right potential in, and doing it against bigger clubs who can pay bigger wages, or even offer European football. There is no getting away from it: we’ll be a niche pick for players willing to take a risk. Identifying those players? That’s tough.
There are risks for us with our player lists. Aim too high, and we may miss out repeatedly on targets. Aim too low and the squad may not improve enough. Leave too much business until August, and we could begin against Middlesbrough or Portsmouth without the depth needed to compete. Do quick business early, and we may sell ourselves short as the window progresses. It feels like a see-saw, but instead of balancing two sides, we have four. I’m not even sure if that is physically possible.
There is still time, or course there is, and nothing that has happened so far indicates a good or bad window. The transfer window remains open well beyond the start of the season, even though we naturally view the opening fixture as the deadline. The window for signing players is 20-odd days longer than the window for the big kick-off. Agents and selling clubs do not always work to the timetable fans find important.
Even so, Jez George, Liam Scully and the board will surely want more players in place before the Championship campaign begins. They will also expect some movement out of the squad, and there will still be business to be done even as we move into the last week of August.
There is no immediate reason to panic. We are in good hands and the difficulty of the market provides a valid explanation for the lack of movement. However, this is not an ordinary summer. It is probably the most demanding transfer window we have faced in the modern era. Patience is necessary, but so is progress. We do not need to win the window in July, but we do need to emerge from it stronger, deeper and ready for the scale of the challenge ahead.
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