I saw a stat yesterday that Lincoln City’s haul of 15 points was the second-highest tally for a newly promoted club since Ipswich in 2023/24, and it shocked me.
It shocked me because it’s not strictly true: Derby (24/25) and Birmingham (25/26) both had 15 points after 12 matches as well, so we were comparable with promoted clubs.
It’s still an impressive haul, and I wondered exactly how the record compared to the 29 other teams promoted from League One in the last ten seasons. Does our solid start still stand up to scrutiny, or was this a case of the numbers being dressed up to make a nice, retweetable fact without any real substance?
To check the numbers, I looked at the club’s progress after matchday 12 on Transfermarkt, which means their position reflects how they compared against all teams after 12 games rather than their table position. For instance, Blackpool on October 19th, 2021, had 15 points, but they were 16th because others had played 13 games while they had played 12. However, if you were to take every team’s haul of points after 12 matches, their record saw them 14th.
Also, this doesn’t entirely account for errors. Transfermarkt has Ipswich on 29 points after 12 games, but 11v11 has them on 31. I think I’ve been thorough with double-checking, but anyone who uses the 11v11 table website will know it is increasingly difficult to access.
What this does tell us is our start is slightly above average: it’s the 13th best of any team in the last ten seasons. It’s actually joint tenth with Derby, Blackpool, Rotherham and fellow centurions, Birmingham City, which is impressive. We’re 13th on goal difference, and we’d be 11th without the West Ham humbling.
Notably, two teams who have started better have eventually been relegated: Charlton in 2019/20, albeit on points per game, and Wigan in 2022/23, the only side relegated over a 46-game season in the last ten years to accrue the same points or more than we have after 12 matches. Is it also notable that ten teams of the 30 have 14 or 15 points after 12 games, and in ten years, not one of those sides has ended up in the bottom three?
Maybe. Here are the numbers for you to chew over.
| Club (Season) | P | GD | Pts | Pos After 12 | Final Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich (23/24) | 12 | +13 | 31 | 2nd | 2nd |
| Sheffield United (17/18) | 12 | +6 | 24 | 3rd | 10th |
| Charlton (19/20) | 12 | +6 | 21 | 7th | 22nd |
| Charlton (25/26) | 12 | +4 | 19 | 6th | 19th |
| Blackburn (18/19) | 12 | -1 | 18 | 10th | 15th |
| Sunderland (22/23) | 12 | +5 | 17 | 5th | 6th |
| Wigan (18/19) | 12 | -2 | 17 | 12th | 18th |
| Wigan (22/23) | 12 | -3 | 16 | 16th | 23rd |
| Rotherham (22/23) | 12 | +1 | 15 | 17th | 19th |
| Derby (24/25) | 12 | 0 | 15 | 12th | 19th |
| Birmingham (25/26) | 12 | -4 | 15 | 14th | 10th |
| Blackpool (21/22) | 12 | -4 | 15 | 14th | 16th |
| Lincoln City (26/27) | 12 | -7 | 15 | 15th | TBC |
| Cardiff (26/27) | 12 | +2 | 14 | 16th | TBC |
| Oxford (24/25) | 12 | 0 | 14 | 14th | 17th |
| Wrexham (25/26) | 12 | -1 | 14 | 15th | 7th |
| Luton (19/20) | 12 | -2 | 14 | 16th | 19th |
| Bolton (26/27) | 12 | -7 | 14 | 18th | TBC |
| Millwall (17/18) | 12 | 0 | 13 | 18th | 8th |
| Plymouth (23/24) | 12 | -1 | 12 | 21st | 21st |
| Rotherham (20/21) | 12 | -3 | 12 | 19th | 23rd |
| Rotherham (18/19) | 12 | -10 | 11 | 19th | 22nd |
| Hull City (21/22) | 12 | -9 | 9 | 21st | 19th |
| Coventry (20/21) | 12 | -11 | 9 | 21st | 16th |
| Peterborough (21/22) | 12 | -13 | 8 | 23rd | 22nd |
| Portsmouth (24/25) | 12 | -13 | 8 | 24th | 16th |
| Wycombe (20/21) | 12 | -13 | 8 | 22nd | 22nd |
| Barnsley (19/20) | 12 | -14 | 7 | 24th | 21st |
| Bolton (17/18) | 12 | -17 | 5 | 24th | 21st |
| Sheffield Wednesday (23/24) | 12 | -14 | 3 | 24th | 20th |
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