On December 17th last season, two of the teams that went on to earn promotion were in the top three.
The third was 14th (Charlton), seven points outside the top six, and they ended up surging up the table. Few supercomputers were super enough to predict that, because they’re not actually super. They take algorithms and make football a science, not an art (I hear a few cries of ‘that’s what you do’ – whatever).
Still, it’s a good piece on a slow news day (I got accused of that on Twitter last night, on a day when there was news). I’ve looked at the latest Opta analysis and found the two teams backed for promotion, the play-off spots and those backed for the drop. Then, sticking a middle finger up at said computer, I’ve made my predictions, based on a little more than just the numbers.
The Table
Opta believe the current top two, Cardiff City and Bradford City, will be in the top two spots come May. Of course, they do, on a PPG algorithm, why would they not, right?
We’re tipped to finish fifth, setting up a two-legged play-off with Bolton Wanderers, who I think are the best team in the division. Stockport will be sixth in this model, facing Stevenage, where anything could happen, given the latter’s ability to spoil matches.
At the bottom, Opta think Burton, Doncaster, Port Vale and Exeter will drop out of the league, with Blackpool, Peterborough and Plymouth all very close to those bottom spots as well.
Here’s the full Opta table, which you can also find here.
| xpos | team | xpts | Title | Promotion | Promotion P/O | REL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff | 83.06 | 42.54% | 63.58% | 30.50% | 0.00% |
| 2 | Bradford | 76.58 | 12.18% | 27.86% | 48.14% | 0.02% |
| 3 | Stevenage | 76.26 | 12.48% | 27.28% | 46.24% | 0.06% |
| 4 | Bolton | 76.06 | 12.30% | 27.36% | 47.06% | 0.06% |
| 5 | Lincoln | 74.19 | 7.96% | 18.76% | 46.62% | 0.12% |
| 6 | Stockport | 74.09 | 7.38% | 17.72% | 46.68% | 0.16% |
| 7 | Barnsley | 69.18 | 2.74% | 7.62% | 32.04% | 1.10% |
| 8 | Luton | 66.82 | 0.90% | 3.38% | 22.90% | 1.78% |
| 9 | Huddersfield | 63.59 | 0.28% | 1.26% | 13.16% | 4.86% |
| 10 | Wigan | 63.45 | 0.36% | 1.20% | 13.32% | 5.30% |
| 11 | Wycombe | 63.30 | 0.18% | 1.28% | 13.26% | 4.86% |
| 12 | L Orient | 62.54 | 0.34% | 1.22% | 10.34% | 5.58% |
| 13 | Wimbledon | 60.69 | 0.12% | 0.58% | 7.30% | 10.72% |
| 14 | Reading | 59.68 | 0.12% | 0.32% | 6.42% | 13.48% |
| 15 | Rotherham | 57.32 | 0.02% | 0.14% | 3.26% | 20.82% |
| 16 | Northampton | 57.03 | 0.04% | 0.10% | 3.16% | 21.94% |
| 17 | Mansfield Town | 55.94 | 0.00% | 0.06% | 2.10% | 26.08% |
| 18 | Peterborough | 55.68 | 0.04% | 0.12% | 1.98% | 28.32% |
| 19 | Blackpool | 55.39 | 0.00% | 0.04% | 1.80% | 29.82% |
| 20 | Plymouth | 54.87 | 0.02% | 0.04% | 1.16% | 33.38% |
| 21 | Burton Albion | 54.05 | 0.00% | 0.02% | 1.04% | 37.28% |
| 22 | Doncaster | 53.69 | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.78% | 38.86% |
| 23 | Exeter | 52.36 | 0.00% | 0.04% | 0.62% | 44.06% |
| 24 | Port Vale | 47.34 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.12% | 71.34% |
My League One Prediction
Having not seen every team, it is hard to call, but if I had to shout a top two, then Bradford would be the team missing out. I’d be backing Cardiff City, until I’ve seen otherwise, and Bolton. I think Bolton are too strong, they’ve got a deep squa,d and January will allow them to bring in some reinforcements. I think they’re going to be second, or maybe even champions.
The top six is so hard to call. Sure, Stockport will be in there, but us and Stevenage have a big job on fighting off some of the challengers. Bradford have deeper pockets, but don’t rule out assaults by Wigan and Wycombe. The former, managed by Ryan Lowe, would be my tip to ‘do a Charlton’ if anyone is.
Also, Luton’s budget is four times ours and when that window opens, Jack Wilshere will be making sure he’s putting his own stamp on their squad. As pitches get better and conditions get better, expect them to have a say in who faces who in those May play-offs.
Relegation
In terms of the sides suffering the drop, it is hard to put an argument together for any of them staying up. Burton have flirted with the bottom four for seasons now, and while they have a little quality in the likes of Shade and Webster, my money is on them being dragged into the battle.
Exeter, Doncaster and Port Vale are the same. I’ve seen all three close up this season, and I didn’t see anything in them that suggested a huge injustice in their billing as bottom-four candidates.
I’d have some minor concerns around Northampton as well, a decent enough side, but without the resources to go big in January. Blackpool will, and while Plymouth and Peterborough are more modest, they’re still decent clubs. Posh will be fine, they’ll be upper midtable when the axe falls on four, but Plymouth? They’re the one side I do think might surprise everyone and be around the bottom six in May.
Bottom four? It’s too close to call.
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