Conclusion and Prediction
If we are using those models to predict the final matches, then teams would expect to get the opposite number of points per game than they are to face, if that makes sense. So, if they are expected to lose 1.50 PPG to opponents, then they would be expected to collect 1.50 points per game.
| Team | Points |
|---|---|
| Cardiff City | 91 |
| Lincoln City | 89 |
| Bolton | 78 |
| Stockport | 78 |
| Bradford | 78 |
| Huddersfield | 73 |
| Stevenage | 72 |
| Reading | 69 |
| Wycombe | 67 |
| Luton | 67 |
| Plymouth | 66 |
Of course, like any supercomputer, this is incredibly rudimentary. The next four games are huge, as Bolton have to face teams with just 1.20 hauls, while we face teams with 1.75 ppg. Our next four matches are the toughest of all the total run-ins, and the toughest of all the next collection of games.
Bear in mind that in our next five there are 15 points up for grabs, while Bolton have just 12 in the same period. Assuming we picked up just three points from those five matches, and they won all four of theirs, we’d still hold a lead over them. Just.
It’s set to be exciting, that’s for sure.
Nice analysis, would be nice to see the prediction being slightly wrong and us nicking it though. Even better if we give Cardiff a good beating and we both finish on 91 points with us edging it on goal difference!
BTW sometimes it is better to be promoted second and then we still have the fight and less complacency in the next season. It is amazing to see how many champions struggle, while second placed teams go on to thrive!
I don’t know if there could be anything in it, but perhaps it’s best not to be top too soon. Most fans will look at Cardiff as a bigger game than us right now. But you would expect the clubs to utterly professional as they approach each game. I wonder if it influences the players though?
I don’t know if there could be anything in it, but perhaps it’s best not to be top too soon. Most fans will look at Cardiff as a bigger game than us right now. But you would expect the clubs to utterly professional as they approach each game. I wonder if it influences the players though?