City sit ten points clear of Bolton Wanderers, with a game in hand. The Trotters have 12 games to play, we have 13, and lurking below them are Stockport and Bradford.
Cardiff City will feel their 11-point gap is enough to hold off two of the chasing pack, even if one catch them, but there are a lot of points to play for right now. The games don’t get any easier, either.
A lot has been said about Bolton’s run-in to the end of the season, but as the league settles, it’s beginning to look a little less challenging than it did. Are Luton Town really going to be a tough fixture?
I decided to look at all of the teams in the automatic promotion hunt, and assess which have the harder run-in. To do that, I have taken the points per game of each of the teams left on the fixture list, but crucially, included the balance for home and away.
The results put paid to the thought that Bolton have the tougher finish, that is for sure.
Bradford City – 1.27 ppg
(H) vs Rotherham (PPG away = 0.73), (A) at Reading (PPG at home = 1.76), (H) vs Leyton Orient (PPG away = 0.81), (A) at Port Vale (PPG at home = 0.73), (A) at Wigan Athletic (PPG at home = 1.40), (H) vs Mansfield (PPG away = 1.13), (A) at Burton Albion (PPG at home = 1.31), (H) vs Plymouth (PPG away = 1.56), (H) vs Northampton (PPG away = 0.76), (A) at Wycombe (PPG at home = 1.94), (H) vs Stevenage (PPG away = 1.06), (A) at Barnsley (PPG at home = 1.80), (H) vs Bolton (PPG away = 1.18), (A) at Exeter City (PPG at home = 1.67)
The Bantams have the easiest run-in of everyone. They have 14 matches to play, and sit 13 points behind us, with a game in hand. They had a horrible spell of fixtures in January which saw them drop into the play-offs, but since then they have rallied.
They now only play one of the current top six as the season draws to a close. However, matches against Wycombe and Stevenage could be tricky as the play-off picture settles. Plymouth will be tough as well, they’re looking good now, and only need six points to close the gap on the top six.
Nice analysis, would be nice to see the prediction being slightly wrong and us nicking it though. Even better if we give Cardiff a good beating and we both finish on 91 points with us edging it on goal difference!
BTW sometimes it is better to be promoted second and then we still have the fight and less complacency in the next season. It is amazing to see how many champions struggle, while second placed teams go on to thrive!
I don’t know if there could be anything in it, but perhaps it’s best not to be top too soon. Most fans will look at Cardiff as a bigger game than us right now. But you would expect the clubs to utterly professional as they approach each game. I wonder if it influences the players though?
I don’t know if there could be anything in it, but perhaps it’s best not to be top too soon. Most fans will look at Cardiff as a bigger game than us right now. But you would expect the clubs to utterly professional as they approach each game. I wonder if it influences the players though?