Don’t Look Up was a film I didn’t really connect with, but it’s something I haven’t been doing. All my focus has been on down, who might catch us, whereas the reality is that if we could claw back the slim lead Cardiff City have, we wouldn’t need to be as worried about who is lurking below.
Well, Opta’s latest projected League One table now has Lincoln City as favourites to win the title, and that in itself is a significant shift in the narrative. By the way, if you’re Steve O’Dare and reading this, you’re just going to get angry, mate, so I’d stop now and let’s all stay friends.
The latest Opta model gives Lincoln 90.52 expected points and a 53.00% chance of lifting the trophy, narrowly ahead of Cardiff City on 90.11 expected points with a 46.60% title probability. Both sides are overwhelming favourites for automatic promotion, each with more than a 96% chance of finishing in the top two. If the projections hold, the title race looks set to go right down to the wire between the top two, with very little separating them. Our goal difference is even the same now, +28 for both, after their thrashing at Plymouth.
Below that, the play-off picture is both clearer and more chaotic at the same time. Bradford City, Bolton Wanderers and Stockport County are all tightly clustered between 75 and 77 expected points, each with around an 84 to 87% chance of finishing in the play-offs. Huddersfield Town sit sixth on 68.74 expected points, but their play-off probability drops to 36.28%, which underlines how vulnerable that position is.
The real story is how compressed the chasing pack has become. There are just four points between 11th and sixth in the projected standings, with Stevenage, Reading, Wycombe Wanderers, Plymouth Argyle and Luton Town all within touching distance. Barnsley and Peterborough United are not far off either. A single win, or a single slip, could swing the entire picture. If this is how it stands heading into the final fortnight, sixth place could change hands multiple times.
At the bottom, the model currently has Wigan Athletic slipping out of the division, with a 38.08% relegation probability and 52.49 expected points. Northampton, Rotherham and Port Vale, all struggling, are the others predicted to see League Two football next season. However, it is far from cut and dried. Leyton Orient, Blackpool and Burton Albion are all projected within a single win of each other in terms of points, and their relegation percentages, while differing, show how tight the fight is. A three-point swing would dramatically alter the outlook.
Final day scenario
That is what makes the final day scenario so compelling. If the table resembles this projection by the end of the season, there could be decisive matches everywhere you look. Orient and Burton, in particular, could find themselves in games that directly determine who stays up and who drops.
Further up, every club chasing the top six, Wycombe, Reading, Stevenage, Huddersfield, Luton and Plymouth, are facing different opponents on the final. If Opta’s forecast proves accurate, the promotion race might not hinge on one or two headline fixtures but as many as six separate matches, all carrying play-off implications.
In short, if these projections are anywhere near correct, League One is heading for a dramatic conclusion at both ends of the table, with the title, the play-offs and survival all potentially going down to the final whistle.